How many times have you heard that many young and educated people are leaving Serbia? Following media headlines like “Brain Drain from Serbia: And Now, Goodbye!” or “The Economist: Serbia Ranked Tenth in the World for Brain Drain,” one gets the impression that Serbia will soon be left without a highly educated population, and what happens then – no one knows. Overall, the narrative that has been presented to the public for some time now, and still prevails, is largely negative, often painting a grim and even catastrophic outlook.

We asked ourselves, is the reality really that bleak? Are our young professionals truly leaving in such large numbers that we risk losing all of our highly educated talent? And finally, is the drama created in society justified?

According to the research by Dr. Mihailo Arandarenko, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade – presented in the 2022 UNDP National Human Development Report for Serbia – the situation is far from tragic, and the highly negative public perception is largely driven by sensationalism.

What did emigration from Serbia look like in the past?

A look at Serbia’s emigration history in the 20th century reveals the first wave of “gastarbeiter” (guest workers) heading to Western Europe in the 1960s. This wave inspired Swiss writer Max Frisch’s famous quote, “We wanted workers, but people came,” highlighting the fact that many who left during that time went on to live and start families in Western European countries, even though they initially came as temporary workers.

During the 70s and 80s, emigration slowed down, mainly due to restrictions imposed by the destination countries. However, the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 90s caused a significant wave of emigration. For the first time, highly educated people were leaving the country in large numbers, although Serbia’s overall population remained largely unchanged due to the large influx of refugees. During this period, there was also a growing interest in emigrating to overseas countries (e.g., USA), where skilled professionals were in higher demand than in Europe.

After the year 2000, emigration continued at a slower pace, driven primarily by economic and family reasons. Europe once again became the dominant destination for Serbian emigrants, while Anglo-Saxon countries lost some of their previous appeal.

Expert opinion – Who is emigrating today?

In the past decade, Serbia’s migration balance has shown a negative trend, indicating that many people are still leaving the country. However, the situation cannot be described as catastrophic, nor can the number of departures be considered excessive.

It’s important to note that the standard annual statistics do not provide information about the educational background of emigrants. 

To obtain valid data on the educational structure of emigrants, Chapter 4 of the UNDP National Human Development Report for Serbia refers to research by Sandra Leitner (Vienna Institute for Economic Studies) and research by Mihailo Arandarenko, both conducted in 2021.

Research conducted by Sandra Leitner at the Vienna Institute for Economic Studies revealed that the cumulative net emigration between 2015 and 2019 for the age group 15 to 39 is estimated at 37,400 people, which is considered an acceptable range. 

However, the most important finding of the statistical analysis in this report is counterintuitive and goes against the widespread perception – the data showed that, during the observed period, there was net immigration of highly educated individuals, meaning those with higher and university-level education. On the other hand, the analysis identified high net emigration among those with vocational or secondary education.

In addition, as the largest country in the Western Balkans, Serbia has universities that attract a significant share of students from the neighbouring countries that speak Serbian, primarily from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, but also from other nations. It is highly likely that the retention rates of highly qualified immigrant students are higher than those of Serbian students studying abroad, resulting in a positive net migration balance of highly educated individuals.

According to the same research, emigration was primarily driven by individuals with a secondary level of education, particularly those with medical secondary education. This group, the largest among those with secondary education in Serbia, accounted for nearly three-quarters of all medium-skilled emigrants in 2018.

The second study, by Mihailo Arandarenko from 2021. challenged the prevalent narrative of massive brain drain from Serbia. Arandarenko focused on countries that are most attractive to highly educated and skilled emigrants, particularly those with programs for highly qualified labour. These are primarily Anglo-Saxon countries—the U.S., Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom – as well as the Netherlands, which recently introduced similar programs.

The analysis of absolute numbers of emigrants who moved to the mentioned countries, based on the immigration data of those countries, showed that these nations don’t even rank among the top ten destinations for Serbian emigrants. Although a few hundred people emigrate this way (in absolute numbers—between 200 and 300 to Australia, and 250 to 500 to Canada), there is no clear trend, meaning these figures do not represent a concerning number in the broader context.

Everyone’s Going to Germany!

When discussing emigration from Serbia, it’s hard not to think of Germany. This is no coincidence, as Germany is the country with the highest number of Serbian immigrants. It’s important to note that nearly a third of all Serbian emigrants end up in this European country. The public in Serbia is particularly concerned about the departure of doctors, medical personnel, engineers, and IT specialists to Germany, and there is a reason for that.

In January 2016, faced with a critical labour shortage, Germany introduced the so-called Western Balkans Regulation, which was in effect until the end of 2023. This regulation allowed citizens of Western Balkan countries, including Serbia, to work in Germany, provided they had a binding job offer and approval from the Federal Employment Agency (BA). Prior to this, there was the “Triple Win” program, based on a bilateral agreement between the German and Serbian employment agencies from 2013, through which medical workers were recruited. The key change brought by the new regulation was the removal of qualification requirements for workers. 

Data shows that the total number of Serbian doctors in Germany increased from 600 in 2015 to 1,500 in 2020. However, until the emergence of COVID-19, this increased number was almost half the number of unemployed doctors located in Serbia, indicating that there is enough medical staff in Serbia, and that this should be supported by creating better local employment opportunities.

Who is Actually Leaving? 

Looking at the latest research on migration, it becomes clear that the emigration of highly educated individuals is not Serbia’s main migration problem. In fact, most emigrants leave for work and have a medium level of education.

The unfortunately coined term “brain drain” emerged from a series of previous studies that, according to Arandarenko, were incomplete and did not consider the full picture of migration trends in Serbia. He argues that the educational level of emigrants is similar to that of those who stay.

This conclusion is encouraging, although Arandarenko advises caution, noting that migration control and management should be among the government’s top priorities in the coming decades. Otherwise, Serbia risks becoming a country that exports labour, especially once it joins the European Union and migration barriers are removed.